Madhya Pradesh Parliamentary Projections

Lok Sabha elections in Madhya Pradesh will be held in 4 phases. We’ll be examining the political dynamics of Madhya Pradesh in three parts. In the first part, we’ll look at the seats where parties other than INC and BJP have some presence, namely Rewa(10), Sidhi(11), Satna(09), Morena(01), Bhind (02), Gwalior(03), Khajuraho(08), Tikamgarh(06), Balaghat(15).

As a political consultancy, we were active in the 2018 state assembly elections on a few seats, examined voter behaviour and devised campaign strategies. We crunched some numbers for the 2009 Lok Sabha, 2013 Vidhan Sabha, 2014 Lok Sabha & 2018 Vidhan Sabha elections, trying to figure out some conclusive trends. Madhya Pradesh remains a two-party state in political terms. We mainly focused our study on non-INC/BJP votes- how they move from assembly to parliamentary elections, and which of INC and BJP benefit more.

For the sake of simplicity, we tried to figure out 3-4 major factors which explain the majority of vote movement. In factor-1, we kept parties like BSP, SP, AAP, and GGP where they are relevant. Factor-2 comprises of other small parties and independent candidates, with major independents (securing 10,000+ seats in the assembly and 30,000+ seats in parliamentary elections) mentioned separately.

In factor-3, we kept NOTA votes. The 4 long phases extending over a period of 20 days will have its bearing too, as the constituencies that will be voting in 2nd, 3rd and 4th phases and are likely to favour the party which will be able to build the momentum, explained by the ‘bandwagon effect.’

As CSDS has pointed out in many of its studies, the national politics and issues have much more effect in MP than in any of the northern state, also corroborated by the fact that regional parties haven’t made any impact yet.

Tarique Thachil, in his book, Elite Parties, Poor Voters: How Social Services Win Votes in India, explained, how the social service strategy employed by the RSS and it’s sister organizations, especially by ‘Vanvasi Kalyan Ashram’ among the tribals, helped BJP a lot in the 2014 general elections. It should still help BJP secure votes in 2019 general elections, and its effect may even increase in some particular pockets, even though the regime in state has changed. Also, supported by the anti-conversion legislation brought by previous CM Shivraj Singh in 2007-2008, RSS was able to bring the tribals into the Hindu fold.

Some researchers suggest globalisation empowers the individual but weakens human communities (Kashima et al,2011). Considerable social churning caused by globalisation and urbanisation, the disparity in income levels, unleashed reactionary forces among the rural voters, most of whom are unable to identify the real agency causing change and seek refuge under conservative values & social solidarity that makes them feel secure.

Most importantly it’s the first election where women are exposed to such a high level of political content and propaganda via WhatsApp, Facebook on smartphones. They will be voting differently but can’t say which way.

 

Rewa(10)

The region is known for voting on caste lines, and the LPG reforms with the technologies associated with it haven’t affected the feudal institution as much as it did in the rest of MP. Since 1991, BSP has represented this seat thrice in 1991, 1996 and 2009 respectively. In 2014, BSP candidate was third securing 175567 votes, BSP got the second position in 1998, 1999 and 2004. So, it can be said that BSP is a major player on this seat securing at least 20% of votes in every election since 1991. In the 2018 state assembly elections, it secured 192185 votes, which eats into INC’s share. BJP got almost twice the number of votes (419720). INC last won here in 1999 under the aegis of senior Brahmin congressman Sundar Lal Tiwari (who passed away recently and his son has been given INC ticket for the upcoming election).

With the perceived good performance of SP+BSP in the bordering state of Uttar Pradesh, and voters expecting a more important role of Mayawati, BSP should get a very high percentage of votes, making it a distant dream for INC again.

As per 2013 assembly trends	2014 Lok Sabha results	As per 2018 assembly trends
65034 lead by BJP	168726 lead by BJP	98725 lead by BJP
BSP=217675	BSP=175567; AAP=5835	BSP=192164; AAP+sapaks=12937
Other+indp=138543; 2 major independents = 13097+25510	Other+indp=40028	Other+indp=106761; 2 major indp=11144+10372
Nota=6818	Nota=10658	Nota=7090

High polling percentage will definitely go against BJP, but may add to BSP more than INC; RSS’ continuous and extensive outreach programmes and efforts for the last 5 years will definitely bear some fruits, buttressed by the rising influence of nationalism in the day to day public life.

Don’t expect much sympathy votes for INC, and If BSP is able to retain 60% of what it got in 2018 assembly elections, BJP should have an easy victory.

 

Satna(09)

Dwellers of the Vindhyan scarpland have been represented by INC stalwarts like Aziz Qureshi and Arjun Singh, but BSP candidate Sukhlal Kushwaha won by a margin of over 6% in 1996. Sukhlal Kushwaha secured 2nd position in 2009 with 190206 votes, though in 2014, with a new candidate, BSP’s votes were reduced to 124602. In 2018 assembly elections BSP secured 187844 votes, against 251743 in 2013.

As per 2013 assembly trends	2014 Lok Sabha results	As per 2018 assembly trends
53306  lead by BJP	8688  lead by BJP	28345 lead by BJP
BSP=251743; GGP=21080	BSP=124602; AAP=7925 GGP=2155	BSP=187844; AAP+sapaks=19686; GGP=2234
Other+indp=93146; 1 major indp=10575	Other+indp=23828;	Other+indp=37915; 1 major indp=42504
Nota=9404	Nota=13036	Nota=20921

In the 2014 general elections,  Ajay Rahul Singh s/o late Arjun Singh lost by a narrow margin (after making an outstanding effort in the midst of a Modi wave, when six months earlier INC performed badly in the assembly elections) of 8688 votes. He got 94000 more votes than the combined INC tally for 2013 assembly elections(7 assembly segments). BJP fielded it’s sitting MP Ganesh Singh and INC gave trusted notable Brahmin face, Rajaram Tripathi. As of now, BJP has a very narrow margin of say 30000 votes, BSP if it secures 60-70% of what it got in assembly can spoil the game for INC again.

Rewa and Satna almost behave identically, so if BJP enjoys a lead in Rewa, it will help it in Satna too, thus expect a BJP victory in Satna too

 

Sidhi(11)  

INC last won here in 2007 bypoll by a narrow margin of 1586 votes. After that BJP’s lead was around 45000 in 2009 and 108000 in 2014. Since 1962, Sidhi always had a Thakur MP except in 2009 and 2014, when BJP fielded Brahmin candidates. In many pockets, voters want to bring back a Thakur, but even this time BJP seems to enjoy a lead of 40000-70000 voters unless INC fields a tall leader and has some strategic plans.

BSP has never won this seat and has always come third since 1991, but still, it’s a major force to reckon with as it secured 116796 votes in the 2013 assembly elections and 80861 votes in the 2018 assembly elections.

With a good leader on BSP’s ticket, it can be really difficult for INC to make a comeback

As per 2013 assembly trends	2014 Lok Sabha results	As per 2018 assembly trends
20963  lead by INC	108046  lead by BJP	104777 lead by BJP
BSP=116796; GGP=58336	BSP=39387; AAP=9691 GGP=23298	BSP=80861; AAP+sapaks=18551; GGP=88503
Other+indp=85931; 1 major indp=31003	Other+indp=56360;	Other+indp=123161; 1 major indp=27121+13876 +9540+32167
Nota=27285	Nota=17350	Nota=24717

Ajay Singh chose to battle from Sidhi this time, which he had represented earlier too (it is said that even in 2014 he wanted to contest from Sidhi against Satna). The campaign is bit emotional this time as he lost his assembly seat and is even reported that he may leave politics in case he loses.

For BJP too the fight is not easy, senior Brahmin leaders aren’t happy with the sitting MP Riti Pathak been fielded again, the district BJP president also resigned in protest. Though she retains her appeal amongst the youth and women, the change of regime in the state may force the voter to choose the MP from the party running the state govt.

 

Morena(01)

The badland topography had a history of coercion, booth capturing and forced voting, but things have changed. INC last won in 1991 when it was a reserved seat for SC, BSP was on the second position in 1996, 1998 and 2014 (securing 28% votes).

In 2013 assembly, BSP got over 300000 votes which got reduced to 226000 in 2018. But, in the karma-bhumi of Phoolan Devi, the electorate can surprise, with the rise in popularity of Behenji, it only needs a local candidate with some good will.

Enthused by a lead of 122000 votes in the assembly election, after 28 years INC is closest to win this seat but is badly affected by BSP cutting into its share.

As per 2013 assembly trends	2014 Lok Sabha results	As per 2018 assembly trends
117329 lead by BJP	132981 lead by BJP	122966 lead by INC
BSP=302908	BSP=242586;	BSP=226070;
Other+indp=58908;	Other+indp=33275; Aap=13806	Aap=+sapaks=11321 Other+indp=54051; 2 major indp=17671+29796
Nota=10024	Nota=4792	Nota=8859

Former MP from Bhind  Ramlakhan Singh joined BSP and was preparing to contest for last three months, but Mayawati fielded Badana, who is an outsider from Haryana, which should benefit INC.  BJP fielded union minister Narendra Singh Tomar, who has represented Morena back in 2009-14. He will be in a tough fight with INC’s  Ramnivas Rawat.

Numbers clearly favour INC.

Bhind(02)

The seat where the caste arithmetics play the most decisive role has been won by BJP since 1989. In last election BSP secured only 33000 votes as  Phool Singh Baraiyya, a prominent Dalit leader floated his own political outfit and contested from Morena. Baraiyya joined INC two months back and was expecting the candidature, but INC fielded 28-year-old former BSP youth leader, who joined INC last year. Jarariya was in news for alleged role in violence during the ‘Dalit Mahabandh’. INC also had the option of fielding Ashok Argal who have represented Morena 4 times for BJP, but high command’s team put more faith on Jarariya.

As per 2013 assembly trends	2014 Lok Sabha results	As per 2018 assembly trends
61434 lead by BJP	159961 lead by BJP	99542 lead by INC
BSP=170175	BSP=33803; AAP=7730	BSP=132578; AAP+sapaks=7644
Other+indp=79113; 8 major independents =9758 +11776+16893+12783+13186 15932+16690+13389	Other+indp=32992;	Other+indp=54020; 3 major indp=30474+28160+ 15307
Nota=7377	Nota=5572	Nota=7812

How seriously politics is taken in this infamous region can be understood by the low NOTA counts. In fact, Bhind, Morena and Gwalior have the lowest NOTA votes.

Arithmetics favour INC with them winning 5 out of 8 assemblies in 2018, also there seems to be no Modi wave this time. The presumption being that fielding Jarariya won’t trigger the caste fault lines, but none can ensure that.

 

Gwalior(03)

Though BSP never won or even came close to winning Gwalior,  in 2014 general elections, BSP secured over 68000 votes where INC lost by 29600 votes.

As per 2013 assembly trends	2014 Lok Sabha results	As per 2018 assembly trends
1608 lead by INC	29699 lead by BJP	133936 lead by INC
BSP=178272	BSP=68196; AAP=15510	BSP=187301; AAP+sapaks=11963
Other+indp=60728; 3 major independents = 12396+17000+14578	Other+indp=51094;	Other+indp=56695; 3 major indp=30745+9154+ 9098
Nota=16067	Nota=4219	Nota=7812

INC fielded Ashok Singh who also fought last time and lost by a narrow margin. He has been working hard for the last 4 years and his morale is boosted by the seven sitting MLAs of INC in the parliamentary constituency.

BJP fielded Shelwalkar whose father represented Gwalior in 1977 and 1980 by defeating INC candidates.

Gwalior also has some presence of communists and socialists, which forms the basis of support for BSP.

But, this time INC should surely win Gwalior that too by a good margin of 80000+ votes.

 

Khajuraho(08)

Historically,  the seat has been a contest between Brahmins and Thakurs except when Uma Bharti won in 1996, 1998 and Kusumariya won in 2004. INC last won this seat in 1999 under its senior Brahmin leader late Satyavrat Chaturvedi.

In Khajuraho and Tikamgarh both, feudalism determines the social structure and barely a dozen families are engaged in politics and common man remains disinterested. Though lately, continuous severity of weather and apathy of outsider legislators led people to mobilise politically- the best example being ‘Kshetriya Sangarsh Samiti’ which constitutes people across all castes and professions, and their prominent demand is that all political outfits should field a ‘local candidate’, and people openly say, they’ll support local candidate irrespective of the party.

Caste wise Lodhis and Thakurs should have maximum numbers followed by Brahmins and Yadavs, with almost equal no of tribals and Dalits.

As per 2013 assembly trends	2014 Lok Sabha results	As per 2018 assembly trends
114595 lead by BJP	247490 lead by BJP	142806 lead by BJP
BSP=147074; GGP=6314	BSP=60368; AAP=8930 SP=40069	BSP=142806; AAP+sapaks=18221 Sp=65402
Other+indp=131435;	Other+indp=54790	Other+indp=62934;
Nota=26862	Nota=7878	Nota=18457

Last time BJP had a massive lead of over 247000 votes, while BSP got 60000 and SP got 40000. This time SP is contesting only three seats in MP, of which one is Khajuraho, with BSP supporting the candidate. SP fielded Veer Singh Patel s/o deceased outlaw ‘Dadua’, who is expected to secure over 70000 votes, thus helping BJP to ensure a lead of over 1,00,000 votes.

INC has two sitting MLAs while BJP has five. INC fielded cabinet minister’s wife Kavita Raje whereas BJP fielded an outsider V D Sharma considering it a safe seat.

 

Tikamgarh (06)

INC last won this reserved seat in 1971 (as reserved), otherwise held by BJP.

SP got around 24000 votes and BSP got 47000 votes in the last Lok Sabha elections, this time too SP is expected to secure over 60000 votes.

Arithmetics suggests it’s should be an easy victory for BJP. Thus it fielded sitting MP and MoS GoI Virendra Khatiq again even after protests from local BJP party workers (the district BJP president resigned in protest).INC fielded women candidate Kiran Ahirwar, who is quite active in the region.

As per 2013 assembly trends	2014 Lok Sabha results	As per 2018 assembly trends
75592 lead by BJP	208731 lead by BJP	98725 lead by BJP
BSP=99891; SP=46788	BSP=23975; AAP=4992 SP=47497	BSP=141376; AAP+sapaks=11664 SP=65402
Other+indp=108722; 5 major independent= 15516 +12158+12668+19442+ 17683	Other+indp=42575	Other+indp=77304; 1 major indp=26600
Nota=13462	Nota=10055	Nota=8313

 

Balaghat(15)

Balaghat is a very different seat than the rest. The socio-economic parameters are better than most of the constituencies. One will be amazed at the awareness of national issues, and understanding of the democratic institutes, thanks to the long communist history of the region.

INC last won this seat in 1996 under the candidature of Vishveshwar Bhagat, this time it is a close contest again. But as Balaghat is an area of activity of communists, the SP candidate is expected to get support too.

Number crunching shows BJP has a narrow lead of around 30000-40000 votes, but the SP candidate  Kankar Munjare who is very active and popular in the region is surely getting 80000-90000 votes.  It will be a difficult task for the lesser known INC candidate  Madhu Bhagat to cover the margin.

BJP should be able to win by a margin of over 60000 votes.

As per 2013 assembly trends	2014 lok sabha results	As per 2018 assembly trends
31042  lead by BJP	96041  lead by BJP	8679  lead by BJP
BSP=83451; SP=116483	BSP=46345; AAP=9898 SP=99392	BSP+AAP=59001 SP=93298
Other+indp=61899; 1 major indp=65402	Other+indp=49562; CPI=20297	Other+indp=72717; 1 major indp=17113
GGP=14910	GGP=5225	GGP=19242
Nota=20734	Nota=18741	Nota=15603

By,

Alok Yadav