Summary for the statistical study for the upcoming parliamentary elections in MP:
As a political consultancy we were engaged with few candidates in the 2018 assembly polls in MP, also did voting behaviour study on few seats. Thus, keeping that in mind we did statistical study for all 29 parliamentary constituencies of Madhya Pradesh, trying to deduce some trends, esp on the non-INC/BJP vote share.
In MP, national politics plays relatively much more important role even in assembly elections, than compared to the other states in the hindi cowbelt. Also, in the absence of any major regional party, there still exists pockets of BSP and even GGP on some tribals seats. But, here too, voter behave differently in assembly and parliamentary elections. The choice for NOTA also reduces from 20% to 50% from assembly to parliamentary elections.
In 2014, a large chunk of those who chose neither for INC nor for BJP in the 2013 assembly polls, preferred BJP. The division of constituency in 6 phases extending over 20 days, will have a bearing too.
Here we are enlisting seat wise statistical trends: (as on 5th March)
01- Morena: INC seems to enjoy a lead of around 100000, but BSP may bag 20-25% vote and spoil the game; BSP may also surprise with some strong candidate, as Mayawati ji is expected to play an important role in the next central cabinet.
02- Bhind: if BSP is able to retain 60-70% of its assembly poll, INC may lose.
03- Gwalior: INC leading by around 100000 votes
04- Guna: INC should lead by 80000+ votes
05- Sagar: BJP is leading by 70000-100000 votes.
06- Tikamgarh: Because of its performance in the neighbouring state, SP+BSP may get 8-11% votes, thus helping BJP having a lead of over 125000 votes.
07-Damoh: though BJP enjoys a lead of over 100000 votes, Kusumariya fighting on INC symbol will make it a tough fight.
08- Khajuraho: BSP+SP will secure 6-10% of the vote, thus BJP will be easily leading by over 125000 votes.
09-Satna: small margin for BJP right now, but BSP seems to be spoiling the game for INC.
10-Rewa: BJP leading by over 100000 votes, BSP may bag 2nd position
11-Sidhi: BJP leading by around 80000-100000 votes. BSP may get 5-10% vote share.
12-Shahdol: BJP leading by around 80000 votes.
13-Jabalpur: as of now BJP maintains a lead of 50000-80000 votes.
14-Mandla: INC should win by a margin of 50000-100000 votes.
15-Balaghat: as of now BJP has a marginal lead of about 40000 votes, a popular candidate and effective campaign can help INC win this seat.
16-Chhindwada: INC should win by over 100000 votes.
17-Hoshangabad: BJP has a lead by 50000-70000, a good candidate can help INC win (none of the previously losers should be fielded)
18-Vidisha: if Shivraj Singh contests for BJP, lead shall be over 200000, for any other candidate lead should be over 100000 votes.
19-Bhopal: as of now, BJP leading by 100000 votes, INC fielding Shri Digvijay Singh ji will make it most interesting fight, given his reputation, capability and resourcefulness, INC should win this seat.
20-Rajgarh: as of now, BJP leads by around 100000 votes, but the influence of Shri Digvijay Singh ji contesting Bhopal, should help INC close up the gap
21-Dewas: seat is more influenced by Rajgarh and Indore; BJP leading by 60000+
22-Ujjain: BJP leading by over 125000 votes.
23-Mandsaur: BJP enjoys a lead of over 125000 votes.
24-Ratlam: INC should win this seat by 50000-100000 votes
25-Dhar: INC should win by over 125000 votes
26-Indore: BJP should win by 150000-200000 votes.
27-Khargone: BJP leads by 60000-80000 votes, a good campaign can help INC close the margin
28-Khandwa: BJP leads by 40000-60000, effective campaign and co-opting local leaders can help INC win
29-Betul: as of now, BJP leads by around 70000 votes, a good candidate can help INC win.